When making decisions, I often use analogies related to chess. For example, I'll say I need to think a few moves heads, or figure out how to checkmate something. In both cases, it's assumed that cause and effect are deterministic and all options are known.
After all, during a chess game, both players have complete information about the pieces on the board and the outcome of the game is dependent only on the moves they make. In other words, there is no luck (other than the slight edge someone has when playing first).
However, it's more common for us to have incomplete information when making decisions. This is more similar to figuring out how to bet a poker hand. Even with a great strategy there is still an element of luck, which can lead to surprising wins and bad beats.